Project BEACON: Using OSINT methods in BWC verification
This project won the "Build a Thing" prize on our Pandemics (May 2024) course. The text below is an excerpt from the final project.
Introduction
In an era of rapid technological advancement and complex geopolitical tensions, the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) faces unprecedented challenges. Recent years have witnessed a convergence of genome editing and artificial intelligence. This along with the ability to genetically modify pathogens create a constantly evolving landscape of potential threats that verification methods struggle to keep pace with.
Unlike major chemical and nuclear weapons treaties, the BWC has lacked verification provisions since its inception, with global discussions on this critical aspect halted since 2001. Verifying the BWC is exceptionally difficult due to the dual-use nature of biotechnology, which makes distinguishing between legitimate research and weapons development challenging.
At the Ninth BWC Review Conference in late 2022, 185 countries took a significant step forward, agreeing to establish a working group to revisit compliance and verification issues. This decision, made against a backdrop of rising international tensions, marks a potential turning point. The subsequent meeting in December 2023 saw constructive dialogue that moved beyond past impasses, with participants acknowledging the potential of open source verification tools and microbial forensics.
Unveiling Bioweapons Programs: The Iraqi Case Study
The Iraqi biological weapons program, which operated from the late 1980s to early 2000s, serves as a crucial case study for verifying compliance with the BWC. Its significance lies in its violation of the BWC after the treaty came into force, providing researchers with valuable insights into how to verify the treaty.
In the aftermath of the 1991 Gulf War, the world faced a new challenge: how to verify and dismantle Iraq's weapons of mass destruction programs? The United Nations Special Commission (UNSCOM) was created, an initiative that would set new standards for international arms control and verification.
UNSCOM's work on Iraq's biological weapons program was particularly challenging. Unlike chemical weapons, biological agents can be quickly destroyed and can be hidden in plain sight disguised as legitimate pharmaceutical companies.
An example is the Al-Hakam facility, Iraq initially declared Al Hakam as a civilian facility for producing animal feed proteins. However, its remote location and high security raised suspicions. UNSCOM undertook the following steps to uncover the facility-
- Records of equipment and material acquisitions were meticulously analyzed to create a 'watchlist' for monitoring suspicious purchases that could be linked to bioweapons development. UNSCOM examined publicly available import/export data and commercial records to track the purchase of dual-use equipment and materials.
- Changes in Iraqi scientists' publication patterns were carefully examined for potential red flags, such as sudden shifts in research focus or unexplained gaps in productivity.
- Additionally, historical satellite images were used to identify infrastructural changes at suspected sites, providing visual evidence of possible covert activities.
The uncovering of Al Hakam was a significant breakthrough in UNSCOM's mission, as it was one of Iraq's primary biological weapons production facilities.
OSINT (Open Source Intelligence)
UNSCOM pioneered many techniques that are now commonplace in Open Source Intelligence (OSINT).
OSINT, at its core, is about leveraging publicly available information to gain insights. This includes data from commercial satellites, social media, transport flows, and even publications about commercial enterprises. Most commonly used in security and business intelligence.
Unlike traditional intelligence gathering which needs on site equipment and clearance, OSINT can be conducted by anyone with an internet connection and by cultivating the right skillset (Beginners guides: Exposing the Invisible, Bellingcat). This democratization of intelligence has led to some remarkable discoveries by journalists and researchers.
OSINT in BWC Verification
The rapid evolution of open source technologies is reshaping the status quo. Traditional on-site inspections to verify the BWC treaty are politically sensitive and resource-intensive. OSINT allows for continuous monitoring of potential biological weapons activities without requiring physical access to facilities.
By drawing from diverse sources (scientific literature, patent databases, satellite imagery, social media, and public health records), OSINT can paint a comprehensive picture of a nation's biological capabilities and activities. This breadth allows analysts to identify patterns or anomalies that might not be apparent when looking at any single source of information.
Below are some potential projects that we can pursue using OSINT to verify the BWC convention:
| Source | OSINT projects |
|---|---|
| Research Publication Analysis | Develop tools to scan academic journals, preprint servers, and conference proceedings for keywords, unusual research patterns, or collaborations that might indicate dual use biotechnologies. |
| Supply Chain Tracking | Develop a database of companies involved in producing or selling relevant materials and equipment. Monitor their transactions, shipping records, and customer bases for unusual patterns or undeclared capabilities. |
| Health data integration | Aggregate and analyze public health reports, hospital admissions data, and pharmaceutical sales information to identify unusual disease patterns or drug demands that don't align with known natural outbreaks. |
| Patent Analysis | Create a system to scan patent databases globally, flagging applications that involve techniques or processes |
| Social media analysis | Analyze social media posts across multiple platforms for clusters of health-related complaints that could indicate an accidental release of biological agents. |
| Economic analysis | Monitor financial transactions, company formations, and government budget allocations related to biotechnology, flagging unusual patterns that could indicate covert programs. |
| Satellite imagery | Analyze satellite imagery for structures consistent with potential Dual-Use facilities. Track changes over time to detect expansions or modifications. |
As new technologies with potential dual-use applications arise, OSINT techniques can quickly incorporate these developments into their monitoring frameworks. This flexibility ensures that verification efforts remain relevant in the face of scientific advancements that could potentially be exploited for weapons development.
Policy recommendations
To effectively close the gap in Verification with a modular incremental approach like OSINT, it is also prudent to design complementary policies. Below are some policy ideas that will integrate OSINT and complement this overall framework:
| Policy Recommendation | Implementation |
|---|---|
| Global Bio surveillance Network | Global environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling program with international cooperation and data sharing. |
| International Biosecurity Rapid Response Network | Collaborative international network of health agencies, biosecurity units, and experts to rapidly respond to biological threats. |
OSINT complements traditional verification methods by offering continuous & broad spectrum monitoring that can guide more targeted investigations. With both these policies, we can strengthen global biosecurity architecture through improved regional cooperation and preparedness.
Project BEACON
“At the heart of both UNSCOM and OSINT are people…...They both rely on talented, inventive, meticulous people who are looking for and finding solutions to really difficult monitoring problems.”- Henrietta Williams, Policy Researcher at KCL
I propose that we create Project BEACON, bringing together student scientists who will examine historical cases of BWC violations to gain valuable insights into past challenges and shortcomings in verification processes. Building on this historical foundation, the project will harness the power of OSINT to develop advanced data analytics skills and innovative methodologies for detecting potential biological weapons activities. The final component will involve crafting policy recommendations that complement these technical approaches, offering a fresh perspective on strengthening the global biosecurity framework.
For this project, I have attempted to answer the question of ‘What happens after detection using OSINT?’ For this, we used a simulated tabletop exercise. You can find the report to our findings linked here.
The prevalence of OSINT verification technologies demonstrates the widespread capability for nongovernmental monitoring. These tools already track various illicit activities and global transport networks. This presents a unique opportunity to integrate these disparate efforts into a comprehensive global bioweapons tracking service. By recognizing and leveraging these existing technologies, we can create a powerful complement to traditional high-level diplomatic initiatives.
OSINT work, while not a replacement for internationally negotiated verification regimes, offers unique advantages in biosecurity monitoring. This integration has the potential to significantly enhance international efforts in bioweapons monitoring, bridging the gap between grassroots technological innovations and formal interstate cooperation.
Full project
You can explore the full project here.