Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N1) Vaccines: The Guardrail Against the Next Pandemic!

This project was a runner-up for the "Simple Explainer" prize on our Pandemics (Sept 2024) course. The text below is an excerpt from the final project.

A non-technical explainer for public health policymakers to understand the urgent need for upscaling H5N1 vaccine production for humans and stockpiling in preparation for a possible pandemic worse than COVID-19.

Geofrey Jagero
January 12, 2025

“Imagine a respiratory virus spreading much faster than COVID-19 among the billions of human populations across the world who are naïve (not immunologically competent to fight the disease), with insufficient non-pharmaceutical interventions, a world at a standstill, and with a death rate of 50% of persons infected”.

A spotlight on a global catastrophic biological risks (GCBRS) in the making.

A Brief Overview of Highly Pathogenic Influenza H5N1

Viruses are microscopic entities composed of genetic material that can only reproduce inside the living cells of hosts. They exist in the environment and can either be harmless or harmful to plants and animals, with some causing significant mortality historically. Influenza A viruses (AIVs), primarily affecting birds, belong to the Orthomyxoviridae family and can pose serious public health risks due to their ease of spread and potential for harm. AIVs consist of eight genetic segments and can produce at least 11 proteins, including hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA), used for classification. AIVs are categorized into low pathogenic (LPAI) and highly pathogenic (HPAI) based on their virulence, with LPAI being more common and typically causing mild illness, while HPAI can lead to severe disease. LPAI viruses can acquire new genetic material, potentially evolving into HPAI strains.

The H5N1 virus is a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) with a high death rate in chickens and humans. It first emerged in chickens in Scotland in 1959 and infected humans in Hong Kong in 1997, leading to significant outbreaks among birds worldwide. Wild migratory birds are primary hosts, but domesticated poultry and some mammals can also be infected, causing death rates of 90-100% in poultry farming. This results in major poultry industry outbreaks and trade restrictions. Low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) can mutate into HPAI, affecting international trade. There are concerns about H5N1's potential to mutate further and spread directly between humans.

Recently, several regions have reported infections from the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus, raising concerns among public health authorities like WHO and the CDC. This strain originates from a 1996 outbreak in Guangdong, China. The current outbreak is the largest recorded among wild birds in the U.S. and has been detected in over 28 European countries, affecting various mammals, including the deaths of over 3,000 sea lions in Peru. There are worries about the virus spreading between bird species and marine mammals, emphasizing the complexity of its transmission and the potential risks to the economy and human health.

This article will analyze the HPAI H5N1 virus, focusing on its emergence and spread. We will look at the potential economic impact of a pandemic, how the virus has evolved in birds and mammals, and its spread among these species. Learning from the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, we will offer policy recommendations for public health agencies and policymakers globally (including WHO, WOAH, FAO, CEPI, GAVI, IVI), regionally (like AfCDC, ECDC, PAHO), and nationally. We will examine current research to identify gaps and suggest ways to address them. Our goal is to outline clear steps needed to prepare for and prevent a possible HPAI H5N1 pandemic. We will also use Finland as a case study to show what lessons have been learned from past HPAI outbreaks and to review the measures Finnish authorities have taken and their successes.

Full project

View the full project here